Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.016
- 41.4%Success rate40.1%
- +0.066EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- 42.8%Third-down rate39.9%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.73
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 23/41 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Johnson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 11 | 17 | 131 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rich Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/39 | 321 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 8 | 8 | 193 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 12 | 51 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.97