2000 · Week 17

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

25·28

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapGiants
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.016
  • 41.4%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.066EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 42.8%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.73
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7NYG @ JAX23–17NYG
2018 · W1JAX @ NYG20–15JAX
2014 · W13NYG @ JAX24–25JAX
2010 · W12JAX @ NYG20–24NYG
2006 · W11NYG @ JAX10–26JAX
2002 · W9JAX @ NYG17–24NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYG
JAXQ1 15:00413Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 12:423-7Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:233-5Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:123-8Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:2544Punt0–0
NYGQ1 6:271343Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 0:45779Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 13:23627Punt7–7
JAXQ2 10:5038Punt7–7
NYGQ2 9:19615Punt7–7
JAXQ2 6:1039Punt7–7
NYGQ2 4:34965Turnover on downs7–7
JAXQ2 0:3136Punt7–7
NYGQ3 15:0010Turnover7–7
JAXQ3 14:4535Field goal10–7
NYGQ3 13:1959Punt10–7
JAXQ3 10:51634Punt10–7
NYGQ3 7:381270Turnover on downs10–7
JAXQ3 1:4269Punt10–7
NYGQ4 14:00775Touchdown10–14
JAXQ4 11:11528Turnover10–14
NYGQ4 9:27630Missed field goal10–14
JAXQ4 5:50625Turnover on downs10–14
NYGQ4 3:24255Touchdown10–21
JAXQ4 3:05361Touchdown18–27
NYGQ4 1:5600Touchdown18–28
JAXQ4 1:51651Touchdown25–28
NYGQ4 0:191-1End of half25–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell23/4126221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor13524.01
Anthony Johnson5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell11171310
Alvis Whitted47391
Kyle Brady47311
Reggie Barlow12280
Fred Taylor1290
Anthony Johnson1180
Rich Griffith0100
Jimmy Smith0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins22/3932121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber24783.31
Ron Dayne630.50
Kerry Collins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer881931
Ike Hilliard412511
Tiki Barber45350
Greg Comella47220
Pete Mitchell11170
Dan Campbell1230
Howard Cross0100
Ron Dixon0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.97