Closing spread
NYG -8
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.006
- 44.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.081
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.118
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.85CPOE+2.60
- 39.5%Third-down rate37.0%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.86Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 20/35 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 4 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 6 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/24 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20