2010 · Week 12

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

20·24

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -8

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapGiants
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.006
  • 44.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.081
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.118
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.85CPOE+2.60
  • 39.5%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.81
  • 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7NYG @ JAX23–17NYG
2018 · W1JAX @ NYG20–15JAX
2014 · W13NYG @ JAX24–25JAX
2006 · W11NYG @ JAX10–26JAX
2002 · W9JAX @ NYG17–24NYG
2000 · W17JAX @ NYG25–28NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001075Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 9:06975Touchdown7–3
NYGQ1 4:44310Punt7–3
JAXQ1 3:081490Field goal10–3
NYGQ2 9:11774Field goal10–6
JAXQ2 5:341371Touchdown17–6
NYGQ2 0:19312End of half17–6
JAXQ3 15:0010Turnover17–6
NYGQ3 14:46924Field goal17–9
JAXQ3 10:19715Punt17–9
NYGQ3 7:3536Punt17–9
JAXQ3 6:03921Punt17–9
NYGQ3 0:39588Touchdown17–17
JAXQ4 13:42942Field goal20–17
NYGQ4 8:2632Punt20–17
JAXQ4 7:2042Punt20–17
NYGQ4 5:55669Touchdown20–24
JAXQ4 3:151012Turnover20–24
NYGQ4 1:2513End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard20/3516201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew211135.40
Rashad Jennings7537.61
David Garrard6416.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker410480
Mike Thomas69460
Marcedes Lewis35360
Jason Hill11150
Maurice Jones-Drew4490
Kassim Osgood1360
Zach Potter0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/2422620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs14876.20
Ahmad Bradshaw9495.40
Eli Manning3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Boss38741
Mario Manningham34611
Ahmad Bradshaw44340
Travis Beckum11290
Derek Hagan24210
D.J. Ware1170
Michael Clayton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.20