2018 · Week 1

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

20·15

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapGiants
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.016
  • 40.4%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.184EPA / rush-0.054
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -4.63CPOE+0.30
  • 40.5%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.89
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7NYG @ JAX23–17NYG
2014 · W13NYG @ JAX24–25JAX
2010 · W12JAX @ NYG20–24NYG
2006 · W11NYG @ JAX10–26JAX
2002 · W9JAX @ NYG17–24NYG
2000 · W17JAX @ NYG25–28NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYG
JAXQ1 15:001059Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 10:12513Punt3–0
JAXQ1 7:0433Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 5:40854Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 0:231565Field goal6–3
NYGQ2 7:19411Punt6–3
JAXQ2 5:18557Touchdown13–3
NYGQ2 2:421117Field goal13–6
JAXQ2 0:0400End of half13–6
NYGQ3 15:001238Field goal13–9
JAXQ3 9:1836Punt13–9
NYGQ3 7:4249Turnover on downs13–9
JAXQ3 6:14420Punt13–9
NYGQ3 4:58514Punt13–9
JAXQ3 3:25553Punt13–9
NYGQ3 1:16736Punt13–9
JAXQ4 13:46417Punt13–9
NYGQ4 12:1323Opp touchdown20–9
NYGQ4 11:24275Touchdown20–15
JAXQ4 10:3939Punt20–15
NYGQ4 9:0839Punt20–15
JAXQ4 6:51614Punt20–15
NYGQ4 4:10745Turnover on downs20–15
JAXQ4 1:4934Punt20–15
JAXQ4 0:4500End of half20–15

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles18/3317611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon14513.60
Blake Bortles44210.50
Leonard Fournette9414.60
Corey Grant133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole34540
Dede Westbrook56510
Austin Seferian-Jenkins35250
T.J. Yeldon37181
Donte Moncrief15140
Leonard Fournette33140
Niles Paul0100
James O'Shaughnessy0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/3722401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley181065.91
Jonathan Stewart284.00
Eli Manning122.00
Odell Beckham Jr.1-1-1.00
Wayne Gallman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.11151110
Sterling Shepard57480
Saquon Barkley26220
Evan Engram25180
Rhett Ellison11160
Wayne Gallman2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36