Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.016
- 40.4%Success rate39.9%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.63CPOE+0.30
- 40.5%Third-down rate36.5%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.26Points / drive1.89
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 18/33 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/37 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 11 | 15 | 111 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36