2022 · Week 7

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

23·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

44

Model margin

+3.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.045
  • 45.0%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.100
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.68CPOE+1.07
  • 37.7%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.07
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W1JAX @ NYG20–15JAX
2014 · W13NYG @ JAX24–25JAX
2010 · W12JAX @ NYG20–24NYG
2006 · W11NYG @ JAX10–26JAX
2002 · W9JAX @ NYG17–24NYG
2000 · W17JAX @ NYG25–28NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–JAX
NYGQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 10:21670Touchdown7–8
NYGQ1 6:58920Punt7–8
JAXQ1 4:071170Field goal7–11
NYGQ2 13:231069Field goal10–11
JAXQ2 7:271081Turnover10–11
NYGQ2 3:261165Field goal13–11
JAXQ2 0:28525Turnover on downs13–11
JAXQ3 15:00766Touchdown13–17
NYGQ3 11:451261Turnover on downs13–17
JAXQ3 6:2036Punt13–17
NYGQ3 4:53616Punt13–17
JAXQ3 1:511370Turnover on downs13–17
NYGQ4 11:251169Touchdown20–17
JAXQ4 5:31310Punt20–17
NYGQ4 4:29861Field goal23–17
JAXQ4 1:041254End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/3020210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley241104.60
Daniel Jones111079.71
Matt Breida4194.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton36581
Wan'Dale Robinson68500
Saquon Barkley44250
Chris Myarick22210
David Sills11190
Matt Breida11140
Daniel Bellinger11130
Richie James1220
Marcus Johnson0300
Tanner Hudson0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence22/4331000
Christian Kirk0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne141148.11
Zay Jones11414.00
JaMycal Hasty166.00
Christian Kirk155.00
Trevor Lawrence430.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk710960
Evan Engram47670
Marvin Jones48570
Zay Jones410540
Dan Arnold11240
Tim Jones1170
Travis Etienne1550
James Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.78