Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.045
- 45.0%Success rate46.6%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.68CPOE+1.07
- 37.7%Third-down rate42.0%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.02Points / drive2.07
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/30 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 24 | 110 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 107 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/43 | 310 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 114 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.78