Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.112
- 41.6%Success rate42.6%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.242
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.62CPOE+0.25
- 37.7%Third-down rate33.0%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.19Points / drive1.48
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/29 | 213 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/40 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlen Harris | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32