Closing spread
MIA -9.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.017
- 34.3%Success rate45.0%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.1%Explosive rate11.0%
- 29.8%Third-down rate37.0%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 0.96Points / drive1.85
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 13/25 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 4/11 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 9 | 15 | 97 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Owens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 18/27 | 207 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy McMichael | 4 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Robert Edwards | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.66