Closing spread
DET -3
Total
47
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.111
- 41.5%Success rate40.1%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.128
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.79CPOE-0.24
- 36.1%Third-down rate30.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 1.75Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/22 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 19 | 158 | 8.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Roberts | 3 | 3 | 48 | 2 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/31 | 239 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 72 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.74
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.02