2018 · Week 7

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

32·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Brock Osweiler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

47

Model margin

+1.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.022EPA / play-0.111
  • 41.5%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.128
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.79CPOE-0.24
  • 36.1%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8MIA @ DET31–27MIA
2014 · W10MIA @ DET16–20DET
2010 · W16DET @ MIA34–27DET
2006 · W12MIA @ DET27–10MIA
2002 · W1DET @ MIA21–49MIA
2000 · W10MIA @ DET23–8MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIA
MIAQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:48779Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 9:12619Punt7–0
DETQ1 5:1838Punt7–0
MIAQ1 3:34425Punt7–0
DETQ1 0:12585Field goal10–0
MIAQ2 12:341172Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 7:331275Touchdown17–7
MIAQ2 1:0220End of half17–7
DETQ3 15:001275Field goal20–7
MIAQ3 8:32575Touchdown20–14
DETQ3 7:06845Touchdown26–14
MIAQ3 3:16718Punt26–14
DETQ4 14:03663Field goal29–14
MIAQ4 10:041172Touchdown29–21
DETQ4 6:00829Field goal32–21
MIAQ4 1:55742Missed field goal32–21
DETQ4 0:4800End of half32–21

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/2221720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson191588.30
LeGarrette Blount10505.01
Golden Tate13030.00
Matthew Stafford492.30
Ameer Abdullah111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Roberts33482
Kenny Golladay22370
Golden Tate46360
Marvin Jones34290
T.J. Jones11260
Kerryon Johnson23210
Ameer Abdullah11120
Luke Willson2280

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler22/3123920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake67212.01
Frank Gore10292.90
Albert Wilson242.00
Brock Osweiler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola67841
Mike Gesicki33440
Albert Wilson33320
Jakeem Grant22320
Nick O'Leary23230
Kenyan Drake48150
Kenny Stills1351
Frank Gore1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.74
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.02