Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.071
- 40.5%Success rate41.7%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.155
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- -3.37CPOE-1.81
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.34
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 14/26 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Jahvid Best | 1 | 1 | 53 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/44 | 278 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 16 | 102 | 0 |
| Mickey Shuler | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Roberto Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20