2022 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

31·27

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

52

Model margin

+2.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapLions
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.073
  • 44.6%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.070
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.08CPOE-1.27
  • 37.6%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W7DET @ MIA32–21DET
2014 · W10MIA @ DET16–20DET
2010 · W16DET @ MIA34–27DET
2006 · W12MIA @ DET27–10MIA
2002 · W1DET @ MIA21–49MIA
2000 · W10MIA @ DET23–8MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DET
DETQ1 15:00560Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:59853Turnover0–7
DETQ1 8:07678Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 5:361185Touchdown7–14
DETQ1 0:50675Touchdown7–21
MIAQ2 13:46475Touchdown14–21
DETQ2 11:301051Field goal14–24
MIAQ2 7:021153Field goal17–24
DETQ2 2:061162Field goal17–27
MIAQ3 15:001075Touchdown24–27
DETQ3 9:11618Punt24–27
MIAQ3 5:16967Touchdown31–27
DETQ3 0:1261Punt31–27
MIAQ4 12:06630Punt31–27
DETQ4 8:191148Turnover on downs31–27
MIAQ4 2:52640End of half31–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa29/3638230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert14644.60
Tua Tagovailoa5193.80
Chase Edmonds4143.50
Tyreek Hill177.00
Salvon Ahmed122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill12141880
Jaylen Waddle891062
Mike Gesicki34381
Trent Sherfield22250
Braylon Sanders22170
Raheem Mostert1130
Cedrick Wilson Jr.0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff27/3732110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams10535.32
Craig Reynolds273.50
D'Andre Swift561.20
Jared Goff133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson34800
Kalif Raymond34760
Amon-Ra St. Brown710690
D'Andre Swift55271
Jamaal Williams33230
Josh Reynolds26140
James Mitchell11140
Maurice Alexander1170
Brock Wright1160
Jared Goff1150
Craig Reynolds0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

6.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.63