Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+2.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.073
- 44.6%Success rate45.7%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.070
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.08CPOE-1.27
- 37.6%Third-down rate41.5%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.11Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 29/36 | 382 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 14 | 188 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 9 | 106 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Braylon Sanders | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/37 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Maurice Alexander | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.63