Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43
Model margin
+4.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.006
- 48.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.14CPOE-4.76
- 41.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.97Points / drive1.79
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 27/38 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gator Hoskins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/40 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 15 | 113 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 11 | 13 | 109 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.76