2014 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

16·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

43

Model margin

+4.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapLions
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.006
  • 48.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.063EPA / rush-0.159
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.14CPOE-4.76
  • 41.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.79
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8MIA @ DET31–27MIA
2018 · W7DET @ MIA32–21DET
2010 · W16DET @ MIA34–27DET
2006 · W12MIA @ DET27–10MIA
2002 · W1DET @ MIA21–49MIA
2000 · W10MIA @ DET23–8MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DET
DETQ1 15:001663Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 6:193-7Punt0–9
DETQ1 4:06149Touchdown0–10
MIAQ1 3:583-13Punt0–10
DETQ1 1:5249Punt0–10
MIAQ1 0:32530Punt0–10
DETQ2 13:14751Turnover on downs0–10
MIAQ2 9:41828Turnover0–10
DETQ2 5:3010Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 5:221365Field goal3–10
DETQ2 0:1300End of half3–10
MIAQ3 15:00213Turnover3–10
DETQ3 14:1453Punt3–10
MIAQ3 11:16625Field goal6–10
DETQ3 8:241263Missed field goal12–10
MIAQ3 1:2213Touchdown13–10
DETQ3 1:17735Field goal13–13
MIAQ4 12:021367Field goal16–13
DETQ4 4:1930Punt16–13
MIAQ4 3:4735Punt16–13
DETQ4 3:131279Touchdown16–20
MIAQ4 0:29312End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill27/3820711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams7344.90
Daniel Thomas5142.80
Lamar Miller4102.50
Ryan Tannehill200.00
Jarvis Landry1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry710530
Mike Wallace58511
Charles Clay79450
Damien Williams33270
Brandon Gibson22200
Rishard Matthews11140
Brian Hartline1110
Gator Hoskins0100
Lamar Miller12-40

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4028021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell10444.40
Reggie Bush4205.00
Theo Riddick300.00
Matthew Stafford2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson7151131
Golden Tate11131090
Joique Bell23370
Reggie Bush1150
Jeremy Ross1250
Theo Riddick2351
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.76