Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.143
- 38.4%Success rate36.6%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.7%
- 34.3%Third-down rate31.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.52Points / drive1.23
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/18 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 24 | 125 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Jay Fiedler | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 8/16 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 7/11 | 74 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Sloan | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.01