2000 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

23·8

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

+2.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapLions
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.143
  • 38.4%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback-0.141
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.146
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate31.8%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.23
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.111EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.4 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8MIA @ DET31–27MIA
2018 · W7DET @ MIA32–21DET
2014 · W10MIA @ DET16–20DET
2010 · W16DET @ MIA34–27DET
2006 · W12MIA @ DET27–10MIA
2002 · W1DET @ MIA21–49MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DET
MIAQ1 15:00146Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 14:3900Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 14:351059Touchdown14–0
DETQ1 8:311021Punt14–0
MIAQ1 4:28415Punt14–0
DETQ1 1:48418Punt14–0
MIAQ2 14:13664Field goal17–0
DETQ2 10:521075Turnover17–0
MIAQ2 5:5131Punt17–0
DETQ2 4:47741Punt17–0
MIAQ2 1:45320End of half17–0
DETQ3 15:0000Field goal17–0
MIAQ3 14:4838Field goal20–0
DETQ3 12:3556Punt20–0
MIAQ3 9:133-1Punt20–0
DETQ3 7:0434Punt20–0
MIAQ3 5:50833Field goal23–0
DETQ3 0:521175Touchdown23–8
MIAQ4 11:01727Punt23–8
DETQ4 6:1133Punt23–8
MIAQ4 5:0048Punt23–8
DETQ4 4:15310Turnover23–8
MIAQ4 3:31513End of half23–8

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler13/1811200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith241255.22
Jay Fiedler8425.30
Thurman Thomas11212.00
Leslie Shepherd111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden46410
Jed Weaver11330
Lamar Smith44170
Leslie Shepherd1170
Thurman Thomas1240
O.J. McDuffie0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch8/169500
Stoney Case7/117401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart18713.91
Larry Foster11616.00
Charlie Batch263.00
Johnnie Morton166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Sloan36640
Herman Moore46450
Larry Foster22300
James Stewart23110
Mario Bates2380
Johnnie Morton1480
Brian Stablein0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.01