Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.151
- 43.0%Success rate39.3%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.117
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.38CPOE+1.13
- 44.6%Third-down rate33.2%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.74Points / drive0.99
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 29/39 | 339 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 14/23 | 177 | 1 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 10/17 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37