Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
49
Model margin
+4.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.054
- 45.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.132
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.055
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- 43.6%Third-down rate40.1%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.88
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 75 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 7:33 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:21 | 7 | 35 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 3:13 | 18 | 78 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:59 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 2:28 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:32 | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q3 7:07 | 5 | 70 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:05 | 9 | 59 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q4 14:45 | 7 | 63 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:04 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| MIN | Q4 6:19 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q4 1:52 | 8 | 56 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/39 | 288 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne Bates | 6 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/29 | 324 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 5 | 6 | 111 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 6 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.39