2024 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapVikings
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.038
  • 43.0%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.89CPOE+4.00
  • 39.7%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–3 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13NYJ @ MIN22–27MIN
2018 · W7MIN @ NYJ37–17MIN
2014 · W14NYJ @ MIN24–30MIN
2010 · W5MIN @ NYJ20–29NYJ
2006 · W15NYJ @ MIN26–13NYJ
2002 · W7MIN @ NYJ7–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIN
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:271053Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 7:4134Punt0–3
MINQ1 6:14642Turnover0–3
NYJQ1 3:1434Opp touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 2:1832Turnover0–10
MINQ1 1:241013Turnover on downs0–10
NYJQ2 12:15740Turnover on downs0–10
MINQ2 8:461353Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 3:5849Punt0–17
MINQ2 1:5033Punt0–17
NYJQ2 1:22531Touchdown7–17
MINQ2 0:362-9End of half7–17
MINQ3 15:0032Punt7–17
NYJQ3 13:2135Punt7–17
MINQ3 11:10539Punt7–17
NYJQ3 7:411668Field goal10–17
MINQ3 0:5050Punt10–17
NYJQ4 14:413-3Punt10–17
MINQ4 13:0332Field goal10–20
NYJQ4 12:073-5Punt10–20
MINQ4 10:4330Turnover10–20
NYJQ4 9:47946Touchdown17–20
MINQ4 6:04857Field goal17–23
NYJQ4 3:071044Turnover17–23
MINQ4 0:4400End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers29/5424423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall9232.60
Braelon Allen5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson13231011
Tyler Conklin69550
Allen Lazard49341
Mike Williams24250
Braelon Allen12150
Breece Hall34140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/3117901
Nick Mullens1/12400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Chandler14302.10
Aaron Jones7294.10
Sam Darnold5112.20
Myles Gaskin221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson614920
Jordan Addison38360
Johnny Mundt22310
Aaron Jones11240
Myles Gaskin11110
Ty Chandler2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.56