Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.038
- 43.0%Success rate46.3%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.89CPOE+4.00
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.85Points / drive2.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 29/54 | 244 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 13 | 23 | 101 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/31 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Mullens | 1/1 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 14 | 92 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56