Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.130
- 43.2%Success rate37.1%
- -0.011EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.196
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.40CPOE-5.42
- 36.2%Third-down rate32.2%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.57Points / drive1.47
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/40 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Roc Thomas | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 10 | 110 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 15 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/42 | 206 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Trenton Cannon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Cannon | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Deontay Burnett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.9%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.92