2018 · Week 7

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

37·17

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapJets
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.130
  • 43.2%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.196
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.40CPOE-5.42
  • 36.2%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.47
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–3 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYJ @ MIN17–23MIN
2022 · W13NYJ @ MIN22–27MIN
2014 · W14NYJ @ MIN24–30MIN
2010 · W5MIN @ NYJ20–29NYJ
2006 · W15NYJ @ MIN26–13NYJ
2002 · W7MIN @ NYJ7–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYJ
MINQ1 15:00453Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 13:22519Punt7–0
MINQ1 10:273-19Punt7–0
NYJQ1 8:0333Punt7–0
MINQ1 7:00531Punt7–0
NYJQ1 4:27686Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 1:0137Punt7–7
NYJQ2 14:4245Punt7–7
MINQ2 13:03829Field goal10–7
NYJQ2 10:133-1Punt10–7
MINQ2 8:573-4Punt10–7
NYJQ2 7:5623Turnover10–7
MINQ2 7:0631Punt10–7
NYJQ2 5:3632Punt10–7
MINQ2 4:4632Punt10–7
NYJQ2 3:404-8Punt10–7
MINQ2 1:4136Missed field goal10–7
NYJQ2 0:4220End of half10–7
NYJQ3 15:00413Punt10–7
MINQ3 13:211074Touchdown17–7
NYJQ3 8:1510Turnover17–7
MINQ3 7:5535Field goal20–7
NYJQ3 5:4969Field goal20–10
MINQ3 2:3938Punt20–10
NYJQ3 0:533-1Punt20–10
MINQ4 14:46361Touchdown27–10
NYJQ4 13:38959Touchdown27–17
MINQ4 10:273-5Punt27–17
NYJQ4 8:4820Turnover27–17
MINQ4 8:33761Touchdown34–17
NYJQ4 5:16310Turnover34–17
MINQ4 4:2947Field goal37–17
NYJQ4 3:221264Turnover on downs37–17
MINQ4 0:4200End of half37–17

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins25/4024120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray15694.62
Roc Thomas12323.00
Mike Boone441.00
Kirk Cousins2-1-0.50
Stefon Diggs2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen9101101
Aldrick Robinson13341
Stefon Diggs815330
Brandon Zylstra11230
Kyle Rudolph14160
Latavius Murray22140
Laquon Treadwell33110
Mike Boone0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold17/4220613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell11292.60
Bilal Powell5204.00
Sam Darnold6183.01
Trenton Cannon242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trenton Cannon45690
Robbie Chosen310440
Chris Herndon47421
Andre Roberts26210
Isaiah Crowell13210
Deontay Burnett1290
Bilal Powell1150
Jermaine Kearse0200
Neal Sterling0200
Charone Peake0100
Jordan Leggett0100
Eric Tomlinson12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.9%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.92