2010 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

20·29

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 72°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -4

Total

38

Model margin

+3.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapJets
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.019
  • 42.3%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.015
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.056
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.30CPOE-4.95
  • 34.1%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.69
  • 3.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–3 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYJ @ MIN17–23MIN
2022 · W13NYJ @ MIN22–27MIN
2018 · W7MIN @ NYJ37–17MIN
2014 · W14NYJ @ MIN24–30MIN
2006 · W15NYJ @ MIN26–13NYJ
2002 · W7MIN @ NYJ7–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYJ
MINQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:49435Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:153-1Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:27633Field goal0–3
MINQ1 4:55421Punt0–3
NYJQ1 3:201252Punt0–3
MINQ2 12:3536Punt0–3
NYJQ2 10:5545Punt0–3
MINQ2 9:2933Punt0–3
NYJQ2 7:59633Field goal0–6
MINQ2 5:2943Turnover0–6
NYJQ2 4:001248Field goal0–9
MINQ2 0:1700End of half0–9
NYJQ3 15:003-12Punt0–9
MINQ3 12:5810Turnover0–9
NYJQ3 12:44730Field goal0–12
MINQ3 8:4937Punt0–12
NYJQ3 7:0632Punt0–12
MINQ3 6:111192Touchdown7–12
NYJQ3 2:1036Field goal7–15
MINQ3 0:49676Touchdown13–15
NYJQ4 12:47618Punt13–15
MINQ4 9:32613Punt13–15
NYJQ4 7:06666Touchdown13–22
MINQ4 4:30559Touchdown20–22
NYJQ4 3:09512Punt20–22
MINQ4 1:4830Opp touchdown20–29
MINQ4 1:30838End of half20–29

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre14/3426431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson18884.90
Toby Gerhart273.50
Brett Favre410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin510972
Randy Moss410811
Greg Lewis12330
Visanthe Shiancoe27280
Adrian Peterson13200
Jimmy Kleinsasser1150
Toby Gerhart0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez21/4419100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson20944.70
Shonn Greene10575.71
Brad Smith242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards511700
Jerricho Cotchery510460
Santonio Holmes39410
Dustin Keller25140
LaDainian Tomlinson57130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.28