Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.019
- 42.3%Success rate41.8%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.015
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.30CPOE-4.95
- 34.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 1.25Points / drive1.69
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/34 | 264 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 10 | 97 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 21/44 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 5 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.28