2014 · Week 14

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

24·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapVikings
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.034
  • 40.5%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -3.58CPOE-2.18
  • 39.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–3 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYJ @ MIN17–23MIN
2022 · W13NYJ @ MIN22–27MIN
2018 · W7MIN @ NYJ37–17MIN
2010 · W5MIN @ NYJ20–29NYJ
2006 · W15NYJ @ MIN26–13NYJ
2002 · W7MIN @ NYJ7–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIN
NYJQ1 15:0010Opp touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 14:48636Punt0–7
MINQ1 10:572-6Safety2–7
NYJQ1 10:12644Touchdown9–7
MINQ1 7:35470Touchdown9–14
NYJQ1 5:53517Field goal12–14
MINQ1 2:28757Touchdown12–21
NYJQ2 13:321391Turnover12–21
MINQ2 7:31622Punt12–21
NYJQ2 3:471236Field goal15–21
MINQ2 0:17212Turnover15–21
MINQ3 15:0000Field goal15–21
NYJQ3 14:56522Field goal18–21
MINQ3 12:241445Missed field goal18–21
NYJQ3 5:031065Field goal21–21
MINQ4 14:151034Punt21–21
NYJQ4 9:3938Punt21–21
MINQ4 8:40645Field goal21–24
NYJQ4 5:2839Punt21–24
MINQ4 4:1530Punt21–24
NYJQ4 3:07845Field goal24–24
MINQ4 0:23240Missed field goal24–24
NYJOT637Punt24–24
MINOT392Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2925411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory16734.60
Chris Johnson16533.30
Geno Smith6335.50
Bilal Powell263.00
Percy Harvin231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin691241
Eric Decker68890
Jeremy Kerley24170
Chris Johnson22130
Chris Owusu1170
Chris Ivory1240
Jeff Cumberland0200
Trevor Graham0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/2730921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata19542.80
Jarius Wright12323.00
Ben Tate3155.00
Joe Banyard199.00
Teddy Bridgewater372.30
Cordarrelle Patterson166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright451231
Charles D. Johnson481031
Greg Jennings57520
Joe Banyard11120
Matt Asiata34100
Kyle Rudolph2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.16