Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.034
- 40.5%Success rate42.2%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.58CPOE-2.18
- 39.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.41Points / drive1.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/29 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 9 | 124 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 6 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/27 | 309 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 5 | 123 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 4 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.16