2022 · Week 13

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mike White

22·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

44

Model margin

+2.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapVikings
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.004
  • 39.1%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -4.97CPOE+1.66
  • 34.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.04
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–3 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5NYJ @ MIN17–23MIN
2018 · W7MIN @ NYJ37–17MIN
2014 · W14NYJ @ MIN24–30MIN
2010 · W5MIN @ NYJ20–29NYJ
2006 · W15NYJ @ MIN26–13NYJ
2002 · W7MIN @ NYJ7–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIN
NYJQ1 15:00418Turnover0–0
MINQ1 13:2531Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 12:331145Field goal3–3
MINQ1 8:30528Punt3–3
NYJQ1 7:09519Punt3–3
MINQ1 5:001659Touchdown3–10
NYJQ2 13:02517Punt3–10
MINQ2 9:501191Touchdown3–17
NYJQ2 3:35618Turnover on downs3–17
MINQ2 1:58620Field goal3–20
NYJQ2 0:40533Field goal6–20
MINQ2 0:0800End of half6–20
MINQ3 15:0036Punt6–20
NYJQ3 12:56743Field goal9–20
MINQ3 9:4366Punt9–20
NYJQ3 7:161272Field goal12–20
MINQ3 0:593-2Punt12–20
NYJQ4 14:46463Field goal15–20
MINQ4 12:30775Touchdown15–27
NYJQ4 8:33651Touchdown22–27
MINQ4 6:4534Punt22–27
NYJQ4 5:301483Turnover on downs22–27
MINQ4 1:4331Punt22–27
NYJQ4 1:19624Turnover22–27
MINQ4 0:1000End of half22–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike White31/5736902
Garrett Wilson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight15906.00
James Robinson4102.50
Elijah Moore11010.00
Mike White372.31
Ty Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson8151620
Corey Davis510850
Ty Johnson67380
C.J. Uzomah11310
Bam Knight55280
Tyler Conklin2790
Braxton Berrios2390
Elijah Moore2670
Denzel Mims0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3517310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook20864.31
Alexander Mattison3144.71
Justin Jefferson2115.50
Kirk Cousins393.00
Jalen Reagor188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson711451
Jalen Reagor11380
T.J. Hockenson46330
Adam Thielen26270
K.J. Osborn23170
Johnny Mundt11120
Alexander Mattison2240
Dalvin Cook23-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.35