Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+2.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.004
- 39.1%Success rate45.8%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -4.97CPOE+1.66
- 34.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.41Points / drive2.04
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. MIN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 31/57 | 369 | 0 | 2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Mike White | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 15 | 162 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 5 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/35 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 11 | 45 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.35