2007 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Cardinals produced the widest margin at 29 points; the tightest finish was Patriots at Giants, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Falcons start Chris Redman rather than Joey Harrington, which the model treats as worth about 1.8 points for them.
Bears start Kyle Orton rather than Brian Griese, which the model treats as worth about 6.0 points against them.
49ers start Chris Weinke rather than Trent Dilfer, which the model treats as worth about 0.1 points against them.
Texans start Sage Rosenfels rather than Matt Schaub, which the model treats as worth about 6.7 points for them.
Patriots lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.256, 0.117 clear of second.
Seahawks have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.119 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Chargers at Raiders, where it rates Raiders about 11.6 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
