Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:20 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:29 | 10 | 87 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:21 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 2:32 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:35 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 9:34 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q2 2:53 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 9–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 9–7 |
| CAR | Q3 13:16 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–7 |
| LAC | Q3 12:20 | 12 | 46 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| CAR | Q3 5:10 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 9–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:35 | 3 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 16–10 |
| LAC | Q3 1:29 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 16–10 |
| CAR | Q4 14:43 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| LAC | Q4 10:09 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 19–17 |
| CAR | Q4 6:45 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 19–17 |
| LAC | Q4 4:56 | 7 | 24 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| CAR | Q4 2:27 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 26–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 23/41 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Jarrett | 2 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.