Closing spread
LAC -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.043
- 45.8%Success rate43.8%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.88CPOE+0.07
- 39.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.21Points / drive2.02
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 22/28 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 8 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 35/49 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 13 | 19 | 132 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| K.J. Hill | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85