2020 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

21·16

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapChargers
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.043
  • 45.8%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.88CPOE+0.07
  • 39.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.02
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2LAC @ CAR26–3CHARGERS
2016 · W14SD @ CAR16–28CAR
2012 · W15CAR @ SD31–7CAR
2008 · W1CAR @ SD26–24CAR
2004 · W7SD @ CAR17–6CHARGERS
2000 · W16SD @ CAR22–30CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–LAC
CARQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
LACQ1 14:013-11Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:27537Field goal3–0
LACQ1 9:20318Turnover3–0
CARQ1 7:43629Field goal6–0
LACQ1 4:281085Touchdown6–7
CARQ2 14:14964Field goal9–7
LACQ2 8:11330Turnover9–7
CARQ2 6:56852Touchdown15–7
LACQ2 2:58947Turnover15–7
CARQ2 0:0814Field goal18–7
LACQ3 15:00516Punt18–7
CARQ3 12:4039Punt18–7
LACQ3 10:44749Punt18–7
CARQ3 7:0838Punt18–7
LACQ3 5:461047Field goal18–10
CARQ3 1:12762Field goal21–10
LACQ4 10:581785Touchdown21–16
CARQ4 4:33635Punt21–16
LACQ4 1:46970Turnover21–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater22/2823510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis13463.50
Reggie Bonnafon2168.00
Teddy Bridgewater2126.00
Curtis Samuel471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore24650
Robbie Chosen55550
Mike Davis89451
Curtis Samuel44450
Seth Roberts23160
Ian Thomas1290

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert35/4933011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler12594.91
Joshua Kelley8435.40
Justin Herbert3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen13191321
Austin Ekeler1111840
Hunter Henry57500
Jalen Guyton23230
Mike Williams11170
K.J. Hill14150
Joshua Kelley2290
Virgil Green0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.85