Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 8:02 | 10 | 22 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q1 3:28 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q1 0:47 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q2 12:12 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q2 7:09 | 10 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q2 2:00 | 7 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q2 0:54 | 2 | 7 | End of half | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q3 13:21 | 4 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q3 11:46 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| CAR | Q3 8:13 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LAC | Q3 7:08 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q3 2:36 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q3 1:14 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q4 12:43 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q4 10:25 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q4 6:29 | 10 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q4 3:19 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| CAR | Q4 1:42 | 5 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q4 1:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/36 | 155 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joey Harris | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.