Closing spread
CAR -8.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:25 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:56 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:19 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 2:27 | 3 | -11 | Safety | 2–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:32 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 9–7 |
| CAR | Q2 12:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:32 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 9–7 |
| CAR | Q2 8:06 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:18 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 16–7 |
| CAR | Q2 7:18 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:24 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 16–7 |
| CAR | Q2 3:33 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–7 |
| CAR | Q2 0:55 | 4 | 6 | End of half | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 16–7 |
| CAR | Q3 13:37 | 3 | 35 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–14 |
| CAR | Q3 11:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:38 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 22–14 |
| CAR | Q3 7:58 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 22–14 |
| LAC | Q3 5:11 | 5 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 22–20 |
| CAR | Q3 1:52 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 22–20 |
| LAC | Q3 1:52 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 22–20 |
| CAR | Q3 0:52 | 5 | 5 | Field goal | 22–23 |
| LAC | Q4 13:40 | 10 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 22–30 |
| CAR | Q4 9:33 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 22–30 |
| LAC | Q4 9:33 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 22–30 |
| CAR | Q4 8:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 22–30 |
| LAC | Q4 6:51 | 13 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 22–30 |
| CAR | Q4 1:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 12/27 | 139 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 6/13 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | -11 | -3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 9 | 17 | 72 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.