Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10/27 | 160 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 66 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.