Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableJatavis BrownLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGKnee· Limited
Panthers
- OutCharles JohnsonDEHamstring· DNP
- OutDaryl WilliamsTAnkle· DNP
- OutDavid MayoLBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDaryl WorleyCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableKurt ColemanSConcussion· Full
- QuestionableLuke KuechlyLBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableMario AddisonDEFoot· Full
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:29 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 10:19 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 7:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:13 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 5:11 | 7 | 36 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 1:48 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 14:45 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 11:12 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 8:11 | 5 | 34 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q2 5:23 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| CAR | Q2 4:36 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q2 3:49 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| CAR | Q2 1:03 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 7–23 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 7–26 |
| LAC | Q3 11:29 | 13 | 66 | Field goal | 10–26 |
| CAR | Q3 4:26 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 10–26 |
| LAC | Q3 2:38 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 16–26 |
| CAR | Q3 0:30 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 14:03 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 16–26 |
| CAR | Q4 12:32 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 10:58 | 3 | -3 | Safety | 16–28 |
| CAR | Q4 10:09 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 16–28 |
| LAC | Q4 5:40 | 7 | 18 | Turnover | 16–28 |
| CAR | Q4 3:53 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 16–28 |
| LAC | Q4 0:14 | 1 | 11 | End of half | 16–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10/27 | 160 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 66 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.