Closing spread
SD -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Panthers
- OutDwan EdwardsDTWrist· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutGeoff HangartnerCFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJonathan StewartRBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableBrandon LaFellWRToe· Limited
- QuestionableColin JonesSGroin· DNP
- QuestionableJames AndersonLBBack· Full
- ProbableCharles GodfreySBack· Full
- ProbableCharles JohnsonDEBack· Full
- ProbableJeff ByersCBack· Full
- ProbableLouis MurphyWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableThomas DavisLBKnee· Full
Chargers
- OutDemorrio WilliamsLBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDonald ButlerLBGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulJeromey ClaryTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulRonnie BrownRBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTyronne GreenGHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableKendall ReyesDEQuadricep· Full
- ProbableMike HarrisTAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:29 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:30 | 4 | 16 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q1 3:45 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:58 | 11 | 38 | Punt | 21–0 |
| CAR | Q2 10:23 | 14 | 32 | Punt | 21–0 |
| LAC | Q2 4:27 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 21–0 |
| CAR | Q2 1:35 | 10 | 71 | Field goal | 24–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:06 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–0 |
| CAR | Q3 13:40 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 31–0 |
| LAC | Q3 8:56 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 31–0 |
| CAR | Q3 6:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 31–0 |
| LAC | Q3 4:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 31–0 |
| CAR | Q3 3:23 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 31–0 |
| LAC | Q3 1:09 | 6 | 25 | Touchdown | 31–7 |
| CAR | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 31–7 |
| LAC | Q4 11:58 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 31–7 |
| CAR | Q4 10:18 | 11 | 36 | Punt | 31–7 |
| LAC | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 26 | End of half | 31–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/33 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.