Closing spread
SD -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/33 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.