2024 · Week 2

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

26·3

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

LAC -5

Total

39

Model margin

-1.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.040
  • 42.3%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.040
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +1.69CPOE+0.06
  • 40.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.88
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W3CAR @ LAC21–16CAR
2016 · W14SD @ CAR16–28CAR
2012 · W15CAR @ SD31–7CAR
2008 · W1CAR @ SD26–24CAR
2004 · W7SD @ CAR17–6CHARGERS
2000 · W16SD @ CAR22–30CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CAR
LACQ1 15:001167Touchdown6–0
CARQ1 9:2038Punt6–0
LACQ1 7:4910Turnover6–0
CARQ1 7:383-2Punt6–0
LACQ1 4:55519Punt6–0
CARQ1 1:1634Punt6–0
LACQ2 14:2035Punt6–0
CARQ2 12:45310Punt6–0
LACQ2 10:171260Touchdown13–0
CARQ2 4:16211Turnover13–0
LACQ2 3:27352Touchdown20–0
CARQ2 2:01623Punt20–0
LACQ2 0:1511End of half20–0
CARQ3 15:00540Field goal20–3
LACQ3 12:18537Field goal23–3
CARQ3 9:033-5Punt23–3
LACQ3 7:31951Turnover23–3
CARQ3 1:5738Punt23–3
LACQ3 0:02937Field goal26–3
CARQ4 11:021355Turnover on downs26–3
LACQ4 5:52724Punt26–3
CARQ4 3:0947Turnover on downs26–3
LACQ4 1:5900End of half26–3

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert14/2013021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins171317.71
Gus Edwards18593.30
Justin Herbert6183.00
Hassan Haskins3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston56512
Will Dissly33290
Ladd McConkey24260
Josh Palmer22190
Hayden Hurst1250
Eric Tomlinson0100
J.K. Dobbins1100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young18/268401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard10646.40
Miles Sanders7202.90
Bryce Young166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tommy Tremble34230
Adam Thielen23200
Diontae Johnson36150
Chuba Hubbard45120
Ja'Tavion Sanders2280
Miles Sanders3350
Jonathan Mingo1210
David Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.87