Closing spread
LAC -5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.040
- 42.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.69CPOE+0.06
- 40.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.25Points / drive1.88
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 14/20 | 130 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 131 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 6 | 51 | 2 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/26 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.87