Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.066
- 42.2%Success rate43.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.9%
- -3.09CPOE+0.99
- 37.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.48Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 14/36 | 128 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 121 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 12/18 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Jerious Norwood | 11 | 75 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33