Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.193
- 41.2%Success rate37.5%
- +0.123EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.225
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.1%
- 36.7%Third-down rate29.3%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.42Points / drive1.06
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/32 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/29 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 28 | 107 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18