Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.174
- 41.4%Success rate50.4%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.012EPA / rush+0.091
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate47.6%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.69Points / drive2.37
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 7/21 | 119 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Schaub | 2/4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/27 | 269 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 139 | 6.3 | 4 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 4 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22