2016 · Week 13

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

29·28

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -5

Total

50

Model margin

+3.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.196
  • 42.7%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.15CPOE+6.59
  • 38.7%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.93
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3KC @ ATL22–17KC
2020 · W16ATL @ KC14–17KC
2012 · W1ATL @ KC40–24ATL
2008 · W3KC @ ATL14–38ATL
2004 · W7ATL @ KC10–56KC
2000 · W17KC @ ATL13–29ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001180Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 10:02472Touchdown6–7
ATLQ1 8:00615Field goal6–10
KCQ1 5:11534Turnover6–10
ATLQ1 2:511043Field goal6–13
KCQ2 13:251192Touchdown13–13
ATLQ2 7:05727Punt13–13
KCQ2 3:17529Punt19–13
ATLQ2 0:4810Opp touchdown20–13
ATLQ2 0:37433Field goal20–16
KCQ3 15:00464Touchdown27–16
ATLQ3 12:521065Turnover on downs27–16
KCQ3 8:54855Punt27–16
ATLQ3 3:091275Touchdown27–22
KCQ4 11:57518Punt27–22
ATLQ4 9:251080Touchdown29–28
KCQ4 4:32528End of half29–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/2527010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Albert Wilson15555.01
Spencer Ware14292.11
De'Anthony Thomas12323.00
Tyreek Hill2199.50
Charcandrick West100.00
Alex Smith3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce881400
Tyreek Hill56530
Albert Wilson44480
Spencer Ware34231
Demetrius Harris1160
Chris Conley0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3429711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman15563.72
Tevin Coleman12494.10
Matt Ryan3237.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones791130
Devonta Freeman45490
Taylor Gabriel56440
Levine Toilolo11420
Mohamed Sanu23260
Aldrick Robinson23181
Justin Hardy1350
Tevin Coleman0200
Austin Hooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.53