Closing spread
ATL -5
Total
50
Model margin
+3.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.196
- 42.7%Success rate49.5%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.15CPOE+6.59
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.88Points / drive2.93
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/25 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 55 | 55.0 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 8 | 140 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/34 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.53