Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
43
Model margin
-3.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.132
- 46.4%Success rate40.7%
- +0.234EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.084
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.71CPOE-3.02
- 44.9%Third-down rate33.1%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
- 2.31Points / drive0.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/31 | 299 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 9 | 108 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 21/33 | 258 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.15