2012 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

40·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

43

Model margin

-3.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.132
  • 46.4%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.71CPOE-3.02
  • 44.9%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
  • 2.31Points / drive0.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3KC @ ATL22–17KC
2020 · W16ATL @ KC14–17KC
2016 · W13KC @ ATL29–28KC
2008 · W3KC @ ATL14–38ATL
2004 · W7ATL @ KC10–56KC
2000 · W17KC @ ATL13–29ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–KC
ATLQ1 15:001280Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:511056Field goal7–3
ATLQ1 4:02313Field goal10–3
KCQ1 1:57976Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 11:39873Touchdown17–10
KCQ2 7:48880Touchdown17–17
ATLQ2 3:381077Field goal20–17
KCQ2 0:1000End of half20–17
KCQ3 15:001058Missed field goal20–17
ATLQ3 9:07970Touchdown27–17
KCQ3 4:543-13Turnover33–17
ATLQ3 4:0217Touchdown34–17
KCQ3 3:56512Turnover34–17
ATLQ3 1:20431Field goal37–17
KCQ4 14:1339Turnover37–17
ATLQ4 12:4438Field goal40–17
KCQ4 10:40943Punt40–17
ATLQ4 6:58517Punt40–17
KCQ4 3:011173Touchdown40–24
ATLQ4 0:0500End of half40–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3129930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner11322.90
Matt Ryan3258.31
Jacquizz Rodgers7223.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones691082
Roddy White68870
Tony Gonzalez56531
Harry Douglas34320
Jacquizz Rodgers22130
Michael Palmer1160

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel21/3325812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles16875.40
Shaun Draughn6294.81
Matt Cassel4205.01
Peyton Hillis7162.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dexter McCluster610820
Dwayne Bowe36530
Tony Moeaki36370
Kevin Boss22361
Steve Breaston24300
Shaun Draughn22120
Peyton Hillis3380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.15