2024 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

22·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

46

Model margin

+1.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Nothing filed.

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.041
  • 47.7%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.015
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +2.51CPOE-0.01
  • 48.6%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.10
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W16ATL @ KC14–17KC
2016 · W13KC @ ATL29–28KC
2012 · W1ATL @ KC40–24ATL
2008 · W3KC @ ATL14–38ATL
2004 · W7ATL @ KC10–56KC
2000 · W17KC @ ATL13–29ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00770Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 11:071869Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 2:46513Punt0–7
KCQ2 15:001479Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 8:45655Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 6:37634Field goal10–14
ATLQ2 2:4337Punt10–14
KCQ2 1:3735Punt10–14
ATLQ2 0:59210Turnover10–14
KCQ2 0:3238Field goal13–14
ATLQ2 0:0600End of half13–14
KCQ3 15:001067Field goal16–14
ATLQ3 9:4037Punt16–14
KCQ3 7:201180Touchdown22–14
ATLQ3 1:16949Field goal22–17
KCQ4 12:5238Punt22–17
ATLQ4 11:221683Turnover on downs22–17
KCQ4 4:0438Punt22–17
ATLQ4 2:26918Turnover on downs22–17
KCQ4 0:5100End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/3921721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carson Steele17724.20
Samaje Perine6254.20
Patrick Mahomes6172.80
Xavier Worthy3134.30
Rashee Rice111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice12141101
Travis Kelce45300
JuJu Smith-Schuster23171
Xavier Worthy24170
Samaje Perine34150
Justin Watson12130
Noah Gray12130
Carson Steele1220

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/2923011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier7324.60
Bijan Robinson16311.91
Ray-Ray McCloud12020.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London69671
Darnell Mooney88660
Kyle Pitts25590
Bijan Robinson22210
Ray-Ray McCloud23170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.23