Closing spread
KC -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.041
- 47.7%Success rate48.4%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.015
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +2.51CPOE-0.01
- 48.6%Third-down rate39.1%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.36Points / drive2.10
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/39 | 217 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Steele | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 12 | 14 | 110 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/29 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 16 | 31 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 8 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.23