Closing spread
KC -11
Total
54
Model margin
+3.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.177
- 44.3%Success rate50.2%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.0%
- +1.23CPOE+2.60
- 43.8%Third-down rate49.5%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.28Points / drive2.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/35 | 300 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 9 | 130 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/44 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81