2020 · Week 16

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

14·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 49°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -11

Total

54

Model margin

+3.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.177
  • 44.3%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +1.23CPOE+2.60
  • 43.8%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.85
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3KC @ ATL22–17KC
2016 · W13KC @ ATL29–28KC
2012 · W1ATL @ KC40–24ATL
2008 · W3KC @ ATL14–38ATL
2004 · W7ATL @ KC10–56KC
2000 · W17KC @ ATL13–29ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–KC
ATLQ1 15:00426Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:07938Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:091043Punt0–0
KCQ1 2:17434Punt0–0
ATLQ1 0:1152Punt0–0
KCQ2 12:45834Turnover0–0
ATLQ2 8:44998Touchdown7–0
KCQ2 3:351278Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 0:3000End of half7–7
KCQ3 15:001063Turnover7–7
ATLQ3 10:263-5Punt7–7
KCQ3 8:19413Punt7–7
ATLQ3 7:141018Punt7–7
KCQ3 1:39633Field goal7–10
ATLQ4 14:08757Turnover7–10
KCQ4 10:39418Punt7–10
ATLQ4 7:58985Touchdown14–10
KCQ4 4:33985Touchdown14–17
ATLQ4 1:551044Missed field goal14–17
KCQ4 0:0900End of half14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3530020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith10464.60
Brian Hill7365.10
Todd Gurley4164.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00
Calvin Ridley1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley591300
Hayden Hurst56471
Todd Gurley33340
Brian Hill33250
Russell Gage45230
Laquon Treadwell22111
Luke Stocker1190
Ito Smith1150
Brandon Powell1220

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/4427821
Sammy Watkins0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams10464.60
Le'Veon Bell7304.30
Patrick Mahomes3217.00
Mecole Hardman12020.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce713981
Tyreek Hill46650
Demarcus Robinson22291
Darrel Williams46270
Mecole Hardman36240
Sammy Watkins24140
Deon Yelder11120
Le'Veon Bell1390
Patrick Mahomes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.81