Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
52
Model margin
+0.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play+0.101
- 48.7%Success rate49.2%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.69CPOE+1.41
- 49.2%Third-down rate48.2%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 2.42Points / drive2.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:30 | 10 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 9:01 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:07 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NO | Q1 0:27 | 3 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 3–21 |
| NO | Q2 14:11 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q2 9:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| NO | Q2 9:03 | 5 | 46 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| DEN | Q2 6:51 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| NO | Q2 2:55 | 10 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 19–24 |
| DEN | Q2 0:27 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 19–24 |
| NO | Q2 0:23 | 2 | 17 | Missed field goal | 19–24 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 19–24 |
| NO | Q3 13:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 19–24 |
| DEN | Q3 12:29 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 19–31 |
| NO | Q3 7:37 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 26–31 |
| DEN | Q3 7:02 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 26–34 |
| NO | Q3 2:20 | 15 | 76 | Touchdown | 32–34 |
| DEN | Q4 10:00 | 10 | 62 | Turnover | 32–34 |
| NO | Q4 5:33 | 7 | 54 | Missed field goal | 32–34 |
| DEN | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 32–34 |
| NO | Q4 0:08 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 32–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 39/48 | 421 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/34 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.12