2020 · Week 12

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

31·3

Broncos

Denver

QB Kendall Hinton

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NO -17

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.096EPA / play-0.071
  • 47.7%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback-0.051
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +2.58CPOE-5.11
  • 46.0%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.72Points / drive1.59
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.6 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7DEN @ NO33–10DEN
2016 · W10DEN @ NO25–23DEN
2012 · W8NO @ DEN14–34DEN
2008 · W3NO @ DEN32–34DEN
2004 · W11DEN @ NO34–13DEN
2000 · W14DEN @ NO38–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DEN
DENQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:0855Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:063-2Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:383-1Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:4136Punt0–0
NOQ1 3:201369Touchdown7–0
DENQ2 10:1931Punt7–0
NOQ2 9:23511Punt7–0
DENQ2 6:323-1Punt7–0
NOQ2 5:3142Punt7–0
DENQ2 3:5439Turnover7–0
NOQ2 2:22513Touchdown14–0
DENQ2 1:0322Turnover14–0
NOQ2 0:12124Field goal17–0
NOQ3 15:0036Punt17–0
DENQ3 12:49521Turnover17–0
NOQ3 10:043-2Turnover17–0
DENQ3 9:0331Field goal17–3
NOQ3 6:56882Touchdown24–3
DENQ3 2:14614Punt24–3
NOQ4 12:571177Touchdown31–3
DENQ4 6:03415Punt31–3
NOQ4 3:4636Punt31–3
DENQ4 1:47324End of half31–3

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill9/167801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray191246.52
Alvin Kamara11544.90
Taysom Hill10444.42
Dwayne Washington362.00
Michael Thomas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas46500
Tre'Quan Smith11160
Adam Trautman1180
Emmanuel Sanders1140
Latavius Murray1120
Jared Cook0200
Alvin Kamara12-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kendall Hinton1/91302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman8506.30
Melvin Gordon12312.60
Phillip Lindsay9202.20
Kendall Hinton273.50
KJ Hamler2-8-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant12130
Nick Vannett0100
Tim Patrick0200
DaeSean Hamilton0100
Troy Fumagalli0100
Jerry Jeudy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -172.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.72