Closing spread
NO -17
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play-0.071
- 47.7%Success rate40.3%
- +0.140EPA / dropback-0.051
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.58CPOE-5.11
- 46.0%Third-down rate39.5%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.72Points / drive1.59
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9/16 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Hinton | 1/9 | 13 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72