2024 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

33·10

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

-9.7est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSaints
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.057
  • 42.8%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.036
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.58CPOE-3.67
  • 40.4%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.72
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W12NO @ DEN31–3NO
2016 · W10DEN @ NO25–23DEN
2012 · W8NO @ DEN14–34DEN
2008 · W3NO @ DEN32–34DEN
2004 · W11DEN @ NO34–13DEN
2000 · W14DEN @ NO38–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NO
DENQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:30440Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:32852Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:28418Turnover3–0
DENQ1 3:391042Field goal6–0
NOQ2 13:2445Punt6–0
DENQ2 12:14886Touchdown13–0
NOQ2 7:301062Field goal13–3
DENQ2 1:57938Field goal16–3
NOQ2 0:1626End of half16–3
NOQ3 15:0033Punt16–3
DENQ3 14:09646Field goal19–3
NOQ3 10:243-1Punt19–3
DENQ3 8:53569Touchdown26–3
NOQ3 5:531047Punt26–3
DENQ3 0:56415Punt26–3
NOQ4 13:29716Punt26–3
DENQ4 10:3447Punt26–3
NOQ4 8:2148Turnover on downs26–3
DENQ4 7:25312Turnover26–3
NOQ4 6:106-1Opp touchdown33–3
NOQ4 4:061269Touchdown33–10
DENQ4 1:2200End of half33–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix16/2616400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams14886.32
Bo Nix10757.50
Jaleel McLaughlin4358.80
Audric Estimé5295.80
Jarrett Stidham2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Franklin56500
Lucas Krull34410
Javonte Williams33230
Devaughn Vele13200
Marvin Mims Jr.23180
Lil'Jordan Humphrey23120
Adam Trautman0300

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler25/3517200
Jake Haener3/43810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendre Miller6366.00
Spencer Rattler5346.80
Jamaal Williams3175.70
Alvin Kamara7101.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedrick Wilson Jr.67571
Mason Tipton69450
Foster Moreau22380
Bub Means35370
Juwan Johnson36180
Alvin Kamara67140
Kendre Miller2310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%3.5%3.5%4.9%3.1%6.8%5.1%2.5%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

24.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-9.73