Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
-9.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.057
- 42.8%Success rate40.6%
- +0.062EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.036
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.58CPOE-3.67
- 40.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.16Points / drive1.72
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 16/26 | 164 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Bo Nix | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 25/35 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 3/4 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 6 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Mason Tipton | 6 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Bub Means | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
24.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-7.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.73