Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.028
- 45.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.169
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.84Points / drive1.72
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/29 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 28 | 166 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 34/60 | 377 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.20