Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.028
- 45.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.169
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.84Points / drive1.72
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:24 | 1 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:14 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:45 | 3 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:33 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:12 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:26 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q1 3:18 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| NO | Q1 1:03 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| DEN | Q2 10:58 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 20–3 |
| NO | Q2 7:52 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 27–3 |
| NO | Q2 7:08 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 27–10 |
| DEN | Q2 3:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–10 |
| NO | Q2 2:50 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| DEN | Q2 1:26 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 27–13 |
| NO | Q2 0:23 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 27–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 27–13 |
| NO | Q3 9:18 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 27–13 |
| DEN | Q3 6:21 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| NO | Q4 14:46 | 11 | 41 | Turnover | 34–13 |
| DEN | Q4 12:22 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 34–13 |
| NO | Q4 8:39 | 12 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 34–13 |
| DEN | Q4 5:22 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 34–13 |
| NO | Q4 4:11 | 10 | 48 | Turnover | 34–13 |
| DEN | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/29 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 28 | 166 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 34/60 | 377 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.20