2016 · Week 10

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

25·23

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

50

Model margin

+1.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSaints
  • -0.059EPA / play+0.100
  • 41.0%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.012
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.31CPOE+4.38
  • 34.4%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.39
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7DEN @ NO33–10DEN
2020 · W12NO @ DEN31–3NO
2012 · W8NO @ DEN14–34DEN
2008 · W3NO @ DEN32–34DEN
2004 · W11DEN @ NO34–13DEN
2000 · W14DEN @ NO38–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NO
NOQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:001385Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 5:45751Turnover7–0
DENQ1 2:28511Punt7–0
NOQ2 15:0010Turnover7–0
DENQ2 14:5337Field goal10–0
NOQ2 13:42724Punt10–0
DENQ2 10:421039Punt10–0
NOQ2 5:1838Punt10–0
DENQ2 3:27939Turnover10–0
NOQ2 0:29450Field goal10–3
DENQ3 15:00424Punt10–3
NOQ3 12:20790Touchdown10–10
DENQ3 8:30931Turnover10–10
NOQ3 5:35438Touchdown10–17
DENQ3 3:59951Missed field goal10–17
NOQ4 14:18220Turnover10–17
DENQ4 13:29727Touchdown17–17
NOQ4 9:373-5Punt17–17
DENQ4 7:41923Field goal20–17
NOQ4 3:2325Turnover20–17
DENQ4 3:0832Field goal23–17
NOQ4 2:50675Touchdown25–23
DENQ4 1:2200End of half25–23

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian25/4025822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker24763.20
Kapri Bibbs7223.10
Trevor Siemian650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas811871
Emmanuel Sanders59540
Jordan Taylor22321
Virgil Green26240
A.J. Derby23220
Jordan Norwood33180
Devontae Booker22120
Kapri Bibbs0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees21/2930332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram11504.50
Tim Hightower8212.60
Drew Brees294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks35981
Willie Snead57472
Michael Thomas46400
Tim Hightower22340
Travaris Cadet23260
Coby Fleener22260
Brandon Coleman11190
Mark Ingram22130
Josh Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.63