Closing spread
NO -3
Total
50
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.100
- 41.0%Success rate48.2%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.31CPOE+4.38
- 34.4%Third-down rate49.0%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.51Points / drive2.39
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 25/40 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 24 | 76 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/29 | 303 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 98 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 47 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63