Closing spread
PK
Total
45
Model margin
+8.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.008
- 45.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.171EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 44.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.53
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:15 | 6 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:25 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:23 | 5 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 0:35 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 12:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:50 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:45 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:44 | 2 | 69 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| NO | Q2 5:54 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| DEN | Q2 5:42 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| NO | Q2 2:29 | 8 | 72 | Field goal | 28–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 31–13 |
| NO | Q3 10:04 | 15 | 72 | Field goal | 31–16 |
| DEN | Q3 4:59 | 9 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 31–16 |
| NO | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 31–16 |
| DEN | Q4 13:15 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 38–16 |
| NO | Q4 8:19 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 38–16 |
| DEN | Q4 7:23 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 38–16 |
| NO | Q4 4:11 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 38–16 |
| DEN | Q4 3:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 38–16 |
| NO | Q4 1:51 | 8 | 97 | Touchdown | 38–23 |
| DEN | Q4 0:45 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 38–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 11/16 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 37 | 251 | 6.8 | 4 |
| KaRon Coleman | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 30/48 | 441 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerald Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 10 | 15 | 170 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 8 | 11 | 122 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 7 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.92