Closing spread
PK
Total
45
Model margin
+8.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.008
- 45.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.171EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 44.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.53
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 11/16 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 37 | 251 | 6.8 | 4 |
| KaRon Coleman | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 30/48 | 441 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerald Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 10 | 15 | 170 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 8 | 11 | 122 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 7 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.92