Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
55
Model margin
+6.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.113
- 47.2%Success rate48.0%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.9%
- +0.89CPOE+7.00
- 43.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.17Points / drive2.26
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/42 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Courtney Roby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/30 | 305 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 9 | 137 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 6 | 43 | 2 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.99