2012 · Week 8

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

14·34

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

55

Model margin

+6.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.094EPA / play+0.113
  • 47.2%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.160EPA / dropback+0.271
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +0.89CPOE+7.00
  • 43.1%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.26
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.6 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7DEN @ NO33–10DEN
2020 · W12NO @ DEN31–3NO
2016 · W10DEN @ NO25–23DEN
2008 · W3NO @ DEN32–34DEN
2004 · W11DEN @ NO34–13DEN
2000 · W14DEN @ NO38–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DEN
NOQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
DENQ1 14:0846Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:19721Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:181198Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 4:393-9Punt0–7
DENQ1 3:0233Turnover0–7
NOQ1 1:46455Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 14:53425Punt7–7
NOQ2 12:29833Turnover7–7
DENQ2 9:00661Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 6:43514Punt7–14
DENQ2 4:241072Field goal7–17
DENQ3 15:001193Touchdown7–24
NOQ3 9:30830Punt7–24
DENQ3 5:54524Punt7–24
NOQ3 3:2231Punt7–24
DENQ3 1:51451Touchdown7–31
NOQ4 14:5439Punt7–31
DENQ4 13:52753Punt7–31
NOQ4 9:4237Punt7–31
DENQ4 8:56642Field goal7–34
NOQ4 5:271385Touchdown14–34
DENQ4 2:0323Punt14–34
NOQ4 0:1600End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/4221321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas8435.40
Mark Ingram372.30
Drew Brees221.00
Darren Sproles4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston510630
Jimmy Graham510631
Darren Sproles79561
Lance Moore36250
Pierre Thomas2260
Devery Henderson0400
Courtney Roby0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3030530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee231225.31
Ronnie Hillman14866.10
Lance Ball2147.00
Peyton Manning144.00
Brock Osweiler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas791371
Virgil Green33440
Eric Decker46432
Willis McGahee22330
Jacob Tamme34330
Brandon Stokley22190
Joel Dreessen0200
Matt Willis0100
Ronnie Hillman11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.9%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.99