Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
38
Model margin
+6.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.066
- 42.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.059
- 7.7%Explosive rate11.3%
- -3.09CPOE-1.27
- 37.7%Third-down rate40.0%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:30 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:51 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 5:10 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:08 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 13:08 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 9:51 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q2 6:33 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 1 | -8 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| CAR | Q3 14:47 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 12:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| CAR | Q3 12:19 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| KC | Q3 10:14 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–24 |
| CAR | Q3 8:29 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–24 |
| KC | Q3 6:42 | 7 | 45 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| CAR | Q3 4:05 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| KC | Q3 2:31 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–31 |
| CAR | Q3 0:16 | 5 | 40 | Field goal | 0–34 |
| KC | Q4 12:26 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| CAR | Q4 10:10 | 7 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| KC | Q4 5:43 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–34 |
| CAR | Q4 4:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–34 |
| KC | Q4 2:10 | 8 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| CAR | Q4 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 10/21 | 86 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 5/10 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/22 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 20 | 123 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 19 | 72 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.08