Closing spread
KC -10
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.177
- 45.8%Success rate50.2%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.0%
- +2.88CPOE+2.60
- 39.5%Third-down rate49.5%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.21Points / drive2.85
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 36/49 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 9 | 9 | 105 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 9 | 13 | 63 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/45 | 372 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 12 | 159 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 18 | 113 | 2 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.56