Closing spread
CAR -5
Total
41
Model margin
-4.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.132
- 44.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.158EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.084
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -1.55CPOE-3.02
- 42.2%Third-down rate33.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
- 1.90Points / drive0.91
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/27 | 232 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 7 | 78 | 11.1 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Joe Adams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 9 | 120 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Joe Adams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 19/23 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 12 | 19 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Brady Quinn | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.8%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.45
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-4.65