2012 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brady Quinn

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -5

Total

41

Model margin

-4.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.132
  • 44.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.084
  • 11.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -1.55CPOE-3.02
  • 42.2%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
  • 1.90Points / drive0.91
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12KC @ CAR30–27KC
2020 · W9CAR @ KC31–33KC
2016 · W10KC @ CAR20–17KC
2008 · W5KC @ CAR0–34CAR
2004 · W2CAR @ KC28–17CAR
2000 · W15CAR @ KC14–15KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–KC
KCQ1 15:00674Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 11:49675Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 8:461056Field goal7–10
CARQ1 3:201180Touchdown14–10
KCQ2 13:27622Punt14–10
CARQ2 10:35525Punt14–10
KCQ2 7:251465Touchdown14–17
CARQ3 15:00528Punt14–17
KCQ3 12:481782Touchdown14–24
CARQ3 2:521180Touchdown21–24
KCQ4 13:21414Punt21–24
CARQ4 11:03613Punt21–24
KCQ4 7:30524Field goal21–27
CARQ4 4:5436Punt21–27
KCQ4 3:47618Punt21–27
CARQ4 0:18478End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2723230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton77811.10
DeAngelo Williams12675.60
Joe Adams155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith591201
Greg Olsen14471
Brandon LaFell24140
Armanti Edwards11110
Louis Murphy1381
Joe Adams1170
DeAngelo Williams1110

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn19/2320120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles271274.70
Peyton Hillis12191.61
Brady Quinn3124.00
Dexter McCluster100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe47640
Tony Moeaki44541
Jon Baldwin22371
Dexter McCluster22160
Jamaal Charles44110
Peyton Hillis1190
Cyrus Gray1160
Jamar Newsome1140
Patrick DiMarco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.8%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.45
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-4.65