Closing spread
KC -11
Total
43
Model margin
-1.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play-0.040
- 47.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.142EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.040
- 5.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.51CPOE+0.06
- 48.6%Third-down rate36.3%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.36Points / drive1.88
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/37 | 269 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gray | 4 | 4 | 66 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 21/35 | 263 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Moore | 6 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.28