2024 · Week 12

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

30·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -11

Total

43

Model margin

-1.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.040
  • 47.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.040
  • 5.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.51CPOE+0.06
  • 48.6%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.88
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W9CAR @ KC31–33KC
2016 · W10KC @ CAR20–17KC
2012 · W13CAR @ KC21–27KC
2008 · W5KC @ CAR0–34CAR
2004 · W2CAR @ KC28–17CAR
2000 · W15CAR @ KC14–15KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CAR
KCQ1 15:00341Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 13:35763Field goal7–3
KCQ1 9:241168Field goal10–3
CARQ1 2:39757Field goal10–6
KCQ2 14:421667Field goal13–6
CARQ2 7:2430Punt13–6
KCQ2 5:141492Touchdown20–6
CARQ2 0:44759Field goal20–9
CARQ3 15:001675Touchdown20–16
KCQ3 6:261151Touchdown27–16
CARQ3 2:421045Field goal27–19
KCQ4 12:371024Punt27–19
CARQ4 6:54414Punt27–19
KCQ4 4:263-9Punt27–19
CARQ4 3:21721Touchdown27–27
KCQ4 1:46657Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/3726930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt16684.30
Patrick Mahomes56012.00
Mecole Hardman2157.50
Samaje Perine11313.00
Xavier Worthy155.00
Carson Steele144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Gray44662
Travis Kelce68620
Xavier Worthy46460
DeAndre Hopkins56351
Kareem Hunt34190
Justin Watson12150
Samaje Perine22110
Carson Steele1290
JuJu Smith-Schuster1260

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young21/3526310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard16583.61
Bryce Young3206.70
Jonathon Brooks273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Moore610811
Adam Thielen34570
Xavier Legette46560
Ja'Tavion Sanders33490
Deven Thompkins33130
Tommy Tremble1250
Chuba Hubbard1520

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -112.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.27
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.28