Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.025
- 40.9%Success rate41.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.123
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.159
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.42
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed+0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 23/31 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Casey Crawford | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Dameyune Craig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 31/44 | 315 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 10 | 15 | 96 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 6 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.69