Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.025
- 40.9%Success rate41.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.123
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.159
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.42
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed+0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 57 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:27 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:50 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:14 | 10 | 68 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:44 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:37 | 7 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 7:46 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 4:00 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| KC | Q3 9:32 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q3 3:46 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| KC | Q3 2:23 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–12 |
| CAR | Q4 12:31 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 14–12 |
| KC | Q4 7:11 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 14–15 |
| CAR | Q4 3:43 | 9 | 37 | Missed field goal | 14–15 |
| KC | Q4 1:35 | 5 | 24 | End of half | 14–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 23/31 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Casey Crawford | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Dameyune Craig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 31/44 | 315 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 10 | 15 | 96 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 6 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.69