Closing spread
KC -7
Total
46
Model margin
+1.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.174
- 42.1%Success rate50.4%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.127EPA / rush+0.091
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.6%
- 39.2%Third-down rate47.6%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.65Points / drive2.37
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 10:09 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 8:16 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 6:30 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 1:10 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 12:34 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 11:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 10:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 9:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 7:39 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 3:56 | 8 | 51 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:45 | 4 | 18 | End of half | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| KC | Q3 6:47 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q3 5:02 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 14–17 |
| CAR | Q3 3:34 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| KC | Q4 14:55 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 21–17 |
| CAR | Q4 11:27 | 2 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| KC | Q4 10:35 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| CAR | Q4 10:28 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 28–17 |
| KC | Q4 9:30 | 11 | 36 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| CAR | Q4 6:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 28–17 |
| KC | Q4 4:51 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 28–17 |
| CAR | Q4 4:18 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 28–17 |
| KC | Q4 0:21 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 28–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/29 | 180 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 32 | 174 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/34 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.85