2016 · Week 10

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

20·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

44

Model margin

+0.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.048
  • 42.7%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.038
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.15CPOE-4.49
  • 38.7%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.61
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12KC @ CAR30–27KC
2020 · W9CAR @ KC31–33KC
2012 · W13CAR @ KC21–27KC
2008 · W5KC @ CAR0–34CAR
2004 · W2CAR @ KC28–17CAR
2000 · W15CAR @ KC14–15KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CAR
CARQ1 15:00854Field goal0–3
KCQ1 10:49730Turnover0–3
CARQ1 7:1739Punt0–3
KCQ1 5:3837Punt0–3
CARQ1 4:006-1Punt0–3
KCQ1 1:3139Punt0–3
CARQ2 14:491385Touchdown0–10
KCQ2 9:05823Punt0–10
CARQ2 5:28782Touchdown0–17
KCQ2 1:521141Field goal3–17
CARQ2 0:1000End of half3–17
KCQ3 15:00827Punt3–17
CARQ3 10:292156Punt3–17
KCQ3 0:211062Field goal6–17
CARQ4 12:0234Opp touchdown14–17
CARQ4 10:32518Punt14–17
KCQ4 7:34635Field goal17–17
CARQ4 4:25521Punt17–17
KCQ4 1:47511Punt17–17
CARQ4 0:29114Turnover17–17
KCQ4 0:20211Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith25/3817801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware13614.70
Alex Smith4133.30
Tyreek Hill11212.00
Charcandrick West252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill1013890
Travis Kelce36310
Albert Wilson47250
Chris Conley13120
Spencer Ware33110
Charcandrick West3350
Ross Travis1250
Demetrius Harris0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3826111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton12544.51
Jonathan Stewart13393.00
Fozzy Whittaker252.50
Ted Ginn111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin712840
Devin Funchess34561
Ted Ginn58440
Greg Olsen58390
Ed Dickson12260
Fozzy Whittaker1290
Corey Brown1130
Jonathan Stewart0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.22