Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.048
- 42.7%Success rate40.9%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.038
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.15CPOE-4.49
- 38.7%Third-down rate36.5%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.88Points / drive1.61
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/38 | 178 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/38 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 7 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22