Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.155
- 47.3%Success rate36.2%
- +0.129EPA / dropback-0.205
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.086
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.84CPOE-11.69
- 43.7%Third-down rate33.5%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.05
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/28 | 196 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 10 | 101 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/29 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.66