Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.155
- 47.3%Success rate36.2%
- +0.129EPA / dropback-0.205
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.086
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.84CPOE-11.69
- 43.7%Third-down rate33.5%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.05
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYG | Q1 10:08 | 7 | 41 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 6:12 | 11 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| NYG | Q1 0:33 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 12:09 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q2 11:10 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q2 7:51 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NYG | Q2 2:15 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| CLE | Q2 0:12 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| CLE | Q3 14:48 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| NYG | Q3 11:55 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 14–20 |
| CLE | Q3 8:11 | 15 | 112 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| NYG | Q4 14:55 | 11 | 85 | Opp touchdown | 14–35 |
| NYG | Q4 8:07 | 7 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 14–35 |
| CLE | Q4 3:58 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 14–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/28 | 196 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 10 | 101 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/29 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.66