Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
-1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.179
- 41.1%Success rate37.1%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.140
- 6.8%Explosive rate5.8%
- -1.45CPOE-4.22
- 36.0%Third-down rate28.8%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.28Points / drive1.09
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/34 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 8 | 12 | 78 | 2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 21/37 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 12 | 86 | 2 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.37