2024 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

21·15

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

Total

38

Model margin

-1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.179
  • 41.1%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.140
  • 6.8%Explosive rate5.8%
  • -1.45CPOE-4.22
  • 36.0%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.09
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W15CLE @ NYG20–6CLE
2016 · W12NYG @ CLE27–13NYG
2012 · W5CLE @ NYG27–41NYG
2008 · W6NYG @ CLE14–35CLE
2004 · W3CLE @ NYG10–27NYG
2000 · W10NYG @ CLE24–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CLE
NYGQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–6
CLEQ1 14:55124Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 14:4933Punt0–7
CLEQ1 12:3966Punt0–7
NYGQ1 9:511586Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 2:073-15Punt7–7
NYGQ2 15:0036Punt7–7
CLEQ2 13:04832Punt7–7
NYGQ2 8:351493Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 1:445-5Turnover14–7
NYGQ2 0:32430Touchdown21–7
CLEQ2 0:1100End of half21–7
CLEQ3 15:003-2Punt21–7
NYGQ3 14:01323Turnover21–7
CLEQ3 12:54610Missed field goal21–7
NYGQ3 10:45413Punt21–7
CLEQ3 9:40929Punt21–7
NYGQ3 5:57620Punt21–7
CLEQ3 1:42639Punt21–7
NYGQ4 14:4231Punt21–7
CLEQ4 13:40549Touchdown21–15
NYGQ4 11:33413Punt21–15
CLEQ4 9:53536Turnover21–15
NYGQ4 7:40514Punt21–15
CLEQ4 5:1949Turnover on downs21–15
NYGQ4 3:563-1Missed field goal21–15
CLEQ4 3:0046Turnover on downs21–15
NYGQ4 2:23143End of half21–15

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/3423620
Malik Nabers0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary16654.11
Tyrone Tracy Jr.5234.60
Daniel Jones8202.50
Malik Nabers242.00
Eric Gray100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers812782
Wan'Dale Robinson78610
Devin Singletary44430
Daniel Bellinger11170
Tyrone Tracy Jr.22170
Theo Johnson13130
Darius Slayton1270
Jalin Hyatt0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson21/3719620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford10373.70
Deshaun Watson4266.50
D'Onta Foreman252.50
Jameis Winston210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper712862
Jerome Ford34330
Jordan Akins47290
Jerry Jeudy47270
Elijah Moore23170
Cedric Tillman1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.37