Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
33.5
Model margin
-3.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.217
- 40.1%Success rate31.8%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.234
- 8.7%Explosive rate5.5%
- 39.9%Third-down rate28.6%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.73Points / drive0.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/31 | 257 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 6 | 10 | 100 | 2 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 17/29 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.31